The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion is a monthly climate update issued by the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This report summarizes current ocean and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean and provides forecasts for developing climate patterns that can influence weather around the world.

ENSO refers to a natural climate cycle involving changes in ocean temperatures and wind patterns across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The cycle has three possible phases: El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO-neutral conditions. These phases typically occur every two to seven years and can influence rainfall, drought patterns, temperatures, and storm activity across many regions, including North America.

The NOAA advisory provides scientists’ analysis of sea surface temperatures, atmospheric conditions, and computer model forecasts to determine the current ENSO status. When significant climate patterns are present or expected, NOAA issues alerts such as Watches or Advisories to inform governments, researchers, and the public about potential climate impacts.

According to recent discussions, La Niña conditions have been present in the tropical Pacific, characterized by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. Forecast models suggest a transition toward ENSO-neutral conditions during early 2026, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña dominates the climate system for a period of time.

Monitoring ENSO conditions is important because these large-scale climate patterns can influence seasonal weather in many parts of the world, affecting precipitation, drought potential, agriculture, wildfire risk, and water resources. NOAA updates the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion monthly to provide the latest scientific assessment and outlook.

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Effects of Drought on Forests and Rangelands in the United States: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis (Forest Service, General Technical Report WO-93b, January 2016).

This assessment provides input to the reauthorized National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA), and it establishes the scientific foundation needed to manage for drought resilience and adaptation. Focal areas include drought characterization; drought impacts on forest processes and disturbances such as insect outbreaks and wildfire; and consequences for forest and rangeland values. Drought can be a severe natural disaster with substantial social and economic consequences. Drought becomes most obvious when large-scale changes are observed; however, even moderate drought can have long-lasting impacts on the structure and function of forests and rangelands without these obvious large-scale changes. Large, stand-level impacts of drought are already underway in the West, but all U.S. forests are vulnerable to drought. Drought-associated forest disturbances are expected to increase with climatic change. Management actions can either mitigate or exacerbate the effects of drought. A first principal for increasing resilience and adaptation is to avoid management actions that exacerbate the effects of current or future drought. Options to mitigate drought include altering structural or functional components of vegetation, minimizing drought-mediated disturbance such as wildfire or insect outbreaks, and managing for reliable flow of water.

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